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The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 85.8%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 14.2%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 85.8%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 10.5%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 67.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22%.The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 85.8%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 14.2%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 85.8%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 10.5%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 67.5%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22%.National Development and Reform Commission: China's investment has considerable potential space. Chengfeng Zhao, deputy director of the Investment Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said on the large-scale all-media talk show of "China Economic Roundtable" that China's investment has considerable potential space from the perspective of promoting the development of new quality productive forces, building a modern industrial system, and improving China's infrastructure and public services to meet people's needs for a better life. First, there is great potential for investment demand in scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading. On the one hand, driven by the goal of "double carbon", China's green infrastructure, green energy, green life and other green transformation areas have broad investment space. On the other hand, in line with the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the investment scale of emerging and future industries such as quantum technology, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy and aerospace in China is expected to maintain rapid growth. Second, there are still many shortcomings and weaknesses in the infrastructure field that need to be filled. To strengthen and expand the digital economy, it is urgent to appropriately advance the layout of new infrastructure such as cloud computing and data centers. Third, there is broad investment space in social and people's livelihood. (china securities journal)

National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Nearly 6 trillion yuan of government investment funds have been put into specific projects and are accelerating construction and implementation. Chengfeng Zhao, deputy director of the Investment Department of the NDRC, said that since the beginning of this year, the NDRC has made great efforts to increase government investment support, pay more attention to the accuracy and effectiveness of investment, and give full play to the driving amplification effect of government investment. This year, about 6 trillion yuan of government investment funds have been arranged, including 700 billion yuan of investment in the central budget, 1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds, 3.12 trillion yuan of local government special bonds for project construction, and 1 trillion yuan of additional government bonds in 2023, which are mainly used this year. At present, nearly 6 trillion yuan of government investment funds have been put into concrete projects, and the construction and implementation are being accelerated.The increase of $3,500 per car cost of Detroit car companies is affected by Trump's tariff policy. Bloomberg industry research analysis shows that if US President-elect Trump imposes proposed tariffs on imported goods from Canada and Mexico, the labor cost per car of American car companies may increase by more than $3,500, and if the production of auto parts returns to the United States, this figure may be higher. Considering the production scale of Ford Motor Company, General Motors Company and Stellantis Company in Mexico, they are likely to suffer the most, while Tesla and Gentex are likely to suffer the least.Bonds are almost in a bearish state. Many brokers expect the Bank of China to cut interest rates next year, and the yield of 10-year government bonds may be around 1.8%. According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, from the perspective of many institutions in 2025, the central bank's interest rate cuts will continue. Many institutions believe that in this context, the yield of 10-year government bonds will also fall to around 1.8%. Tan Yiming, a fixed-income analyst at Minsheng Securities, believes that this year's monetary policy framework reform has been promoted, and the 7-day reverse repo rate, as the main policy interest rate, has become the starting point of the interest rate transmission mechanism. It is expected that there will be one or two interest rate cuts in 2025, and the 7-day reverse repo rate will be lowered by about 20 to 40 basis points, and the 10-year government bond yield will be 1.7% to 1.8%.

Commercial banks strengthen the marketing of personal pension business, such as "opening an account and paying fees, you can get a reduction from WeChat", "paying a limited amount of gifts" and "enjoying tax concessions" ... Near the end of the year, many commercial banks are strengthening the marketing of personal pension business to attract customers to open personal pension accounts and personal pension fund accounts, and pay a certain amount of money. According to combing, recently, the "marketing craze" of personal pension business of ICBC, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, China Postal Savings Bank, Industrial Bank and other banks and their branches is heating up continuously. In addition, with the help of Internet financial platforms such as JD.COM Science and Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jingdong Finance"), some banks have stepped up their efforts to "grab the cake" of personal pension business, and increased the number of customers. The experts interviewed believe that it is an important measure for banks and other institutions to carry out personal pension business to implement the national strategy of actively responding to the aging population, which will help promote the implementation of personal pension policy. For banks, personal pension business can increase customer resources and provide a broader market space for bank wealth management business. (Securities Daily)Insurance companies are busy "enriching blood". This year, the scale of issuing bonds has exceeded 100 billion yuan. Since this year, insurance companies have intensively increased capital to issue bonds "enriching blood". According to the statistics of reporters, as of December 9, a total of 13 insurance companies have issued capital supplementary bonds or perpetual bonds, with a total issuance scale exceeding 100 billion yuan. There are also many small and medium-sized insurance companies that have supplemented their capital by increasing capital and shares. According to industry insiders, 2024 is the last year of the transition period of the second-generation and second-phase rules, and some insurance companies replenish their capital by increasing capital and issuing bonds to ease the capital pressure. Increasing capital and issuing bonds will help insurance companies improve their solvency, resist risks and promote the steady development of their business. (CSI)TOPPAN Holdings of Japan will join the chip packaging consortium of the United States and Japan.